Bubble Boys

Ethan Hyman -Raleigh & Observer Former Wolfpack basketball players Tom Gugliotta, center, and Chris Corchiani, center right, are removed from the stands with 6 minutes, 40 seconds left in N.C. State's 76-62 loss to Florida State on Saturday.

Today we’re going to examine the resumes of several teams on the bubble.  Central Florida, Colorado St, Connecticut, Loyola Marymount, Miami(FL), NC State, Northwestern, Seton Hall, St. Joseph’s, Texas, Washington, Xavier

Central Florida

RPI: 56

Record: 19-7 (8-4 Conference-USA)

Key Wins: Connecticut, Memphis

Key Losses: Louisiana-Lafayette, Tulsa

Outlook: UCF is just 2-4 against Memphis, Southern Miss, Tulsa and Marshall – the other top teams in Conference USA.  Still has a road game at Memphis but will probably need to get to at-least the Conference USA title game to feel good about their chances.

Colorado St

RPI: 29

Record: 16-9 (5-5 Mountain West)

Key Wins: Colorado, Denver, Wyoming, San Diego St

Key Losses: TCU, Boise St

Outlook: The Rams still have a road game at San Diego St sandwiched between home games against New Mexico and UNLV so the opportunity to make a jump is there.  It’ll be difficult, but if the Rams can go 3-1 in their last four and get to the semi-finals of the Mountain West tournament then that will probably be enough for a bid.

Connecticut

RPI: 24

Record: 16-10 (6-8 Big East)

Key Wins: Florida St, Harvard, West Virginia, Notre Dame, Seton Hall

Key Losses: Rutgers, Tennessee

Outlook: The Huskies will have one of the top two or three strength of schedules in the country.  Despite the issue that have plagued them, they have a favorable schedule down the stretch.  A split in their last four and a visit to the quarters will get them to the Big Dance.

Loyola Marymount

RPI: 86

Record: 18-10 (10-4 West Coast)

Key Wins: Saint Louis, BYU, Saint Mary’s

Key Losses: Columbia, North Texas, Morgan St

Outlook: The Lions’ wins over Saint Louis, BYU and Saint Mary’s are better than any wins many of the teams on this list will have.  Those losses to Columbia, North Texas and Morgan St give severe pause though.  May have to win the West Coast Conference tournament to get in, if they get to final they’ll be seriously considered.

Miami (FL)

RPI: 44

Record: 16-9 (7-5 ACC)

Key Wins: Massachusetts, Duke

Key Losses: None

Outlook: Miami has just one quality win, but a win in Cameron carries a lot of weight.  The Hurricanes have a pretty solid strength of schedule, but are just 1-6 against the top 50.  They go to Maryland followed by a home game against Florida St and a road game at NC State.  Their margin of error is extremely slim.

NC State

RPI: 59

Record: 18-9 (7-5 ACC)

Key Wins: Texas, Miami (FL)

Key Losses: Stanford, Georgia Tech

Outlook: NC State had the worst week ever last week.  The Wolfpack lost a game it had won at Duke and then lost at home to Florida St where two of it’s legends were kicked out of the arena.  Win those two games and they’re not even on this list.  NC State has North Carolina and Miami at home coming up.  The opportunity to solidify a tournament berth is still available.

Northwestern

RPI: 37

Record: 16-10 (6-8 Big Ten)

Key Wins: LSU, Seton Hall, Michigan St, Illinois, Minnesota

Key Losses: None

Outlook: The Wildcats have never gone to the NCAA tournament before, but that all can change this season.  They have Michigan and Ohio St at home along with trips to Penn St and Iowa.  4-0 definitely, 3-1 probably, 2-2 and they better get to the Big Ten tournament semifinals.

Seton Hall

RPI: 34

Record: 18-9 (7-8)

Key Wins: Virginia Commonwealth, Dayton, West Virginia, Connecticut, Pittsburgh

Key Losses: Villanova

Outlook: Solid Strength of schedule, but still has a lot of work to do.  The Pirates have Georgetown at home this week and that will go a long way.  Remaining games versus Rutgers and Depaul are more can’t lose than must wins.  If Seton Hall goes 2-1, one of those two needs to be against Georgetown.

St. Joseph’s

RPI: 46

Record: 18-10 (8-5 Atlantic-10)

Key Wins: Drexel, Creighton, Duquesne, Dayton, LaSalle, Massachusetts

Key Losses: American, Charlotte, Penn

Outlook: The Hawks are benefitting from a weak bubble.  They’re currently 0-3 against Temple, Saint Louis and Xavier, which makes their game against Temple on Saturday uber-important.  They lose that game and they’re probably looking at winning the Atlantic-10 tournament to get in.

Texas

RPI: 51

Record: 17-10 (7-7 Big 12)

Key Wins: Temple, Oklahoma St, Iowa St, Kansas St

Key Losses: Oregon St

Outlook: The Longhorns host Baylor tonight and close the season at Kansas.  They have four games remaining and I thing going 3-1 in those games will get them in.  Under no circumstances can they lose to Texas Tech or Oklahoma.

Washington

RPI: 57

Record: 19-8 (12-3 Pac-12)

Key Wins: Oregon, Arizona (2)

Key Losses: None

Outlook: Washington is going to  have to finish at least tied for the Pac-12 regular season title and make it to the championship game to get an at-large berth.  Whether the committee wants to admit it or not; winning the regular season title of a power six conference carries weight.

Xavier

RPI: 54

Record: 17-9 (8-4 Atlantic-10)

Key Wins: Vanderbilt, Purdue, Cincinnati, Duquesne, St. Josephs, Dayton

Key Losses: Hawaii

Outlook: While the Musketeers haven’t been playing as well as they had been before the brawl, they still have the same roster.  That means this team is still capable of winning big games.  One of the best resumes on this list and may have a larger margin for error than other team seen here.  Still, I’d go 3-1 down the stretch if I were Xavier.

This Week’s Bracket Projections:

Last Four In: St. Josephs, Connecticut, Miami (FL), Seton Hall
Last Four Out: UCF, NC State, Colorado St, Illinois

Good for games through of 2/19

SOUTH

1.Kentucky16.Vermont/Savannah St Louisville

8.Virginia9.St. Mary’s

5.Louisville12.Northwestern Albuquerque

4.Baylor13.Oral Roberts

6.UNLV11.Mississippi St Columbus

3.Georgetown14.Davidson

7.Creighton10.Memphis Pittsburgh

2.Ohio St15.Belmont

WEST

1.Duke16.UNC-Asheville/Mississippi Valley St Greensboro

8.Saint Louis9.Harvard

5.Wisconsin12.Texas Albuquerque

4.Notre Dame13.Drexel

6.Indiana11.Seton Hall/Miami(FL) Nashville

3.Florida14.Middle Tennessee St

7.California10.Southern Mississippi Omaha

2.Kansas15.Long Island

MIDWEST

1.Missouri16.Bucknell Omaha

8.West Virginia9.Purdue

5.Florida St12.Washington Nashville

4.Temple13.Iona

6.Gonzaga11.Alabama Portland

3.Marquette14.Nevada

7.San Diego St10.Iowa St Columbus

2.Michigan St15.Valparaiso

EAST

1.Syracuse16.UT-Arlington Pittsburgh

8.Kansas St9.BYU

5.New Mexico12.Long Beach St Portland

4.Wichita St13.Connecticut/St. Josephs

6.Vanderbilt11.Xavier  Louisville

3.Michigan14.Akron

7.Murray St10.Cincinnati Greensboro

2.North Carolina15.Weber St

In Graphical Form

Dragon’s Lair

Drexel hopes to celebrate in Richmond in early March

Will this be the year?  Will this be the year a team other than one from Virginia wins the Colonial Athletic Association.  If the Drexel Dragons have anything to say about it, it will.

It’s been six years since UNC-Wilmington won the regular season title in the CAA.  That’s six long years for the rest of the league as George Mason, Virginia Commonwealth and Old Dominion have dominated the league.  In that span, Mason and VCU have gone to Final Fours and Old Dominion has gone to the NIT semifinals in addition to winning a first-round tournament game.

This year may be different though.  Drexel is currently in a three-way tie for first with Mason and VCU, but it has beaten both teams and has lost only one time in is last 18 games.

The Dragons are hot and only have one game remaining against a team with more than three conference wins remaining.  They’re in prime position to win the CAA title.

Stock Up: Travon Woodall.  He’s made such a difference for the Panthers since returning from injury.  This team looked completely lost without him and now look like one of the best teams in the Big East.  If the tournament began today I don’t think Pitt would be in it, but I’m willing to bet money we’ll see Pitt in the Big Dance and that’s all due to Woodall.

Stock Down: Connecticut.  I’ve never seen this before out of a UCONN team.  The Huskies have had some down years, but what’s going on right now is downright embarrassing.  As I write this, Louisville is currently beating them as if the Cardinals are the Dream Team and the Huskies are Angola.  I’m pretty shocked.

Stock Up: Southern Miss Golden Eagles.  The school that Brett Favre built is having quite a season.  The Eagles are sitting at 20-3 and are atop the Conference-USA standings.  They’ve achieved a season split with Memphis have beaten title contenders Marshall and UCF.  They have a favorable schedule down the stretch and can solidify an at-large bid.

Stock Down: Duke’s Homecourt Advantage. First reports surface that student demand for tickets at Cameron Indoor Stadium isn’t as high as it’s been in the past.  Then the Blue Devils go out and lose to Florida St and Miami.  Not the Heat, the “U.”  Obviously this says more about Duke than it does about Cameron, but it’s definitely surprising to see.

This Week’s Bracket Projections:

Last Four In: California, Minnesota, Wyoming, UCF
Last Four Out: Colorado St, NC State, Arkansas, Northern Iowa

Good for games through of 2/5

SOUTH

1.Kentucky16.UNC-Asheville/Norfolk St Louisville

8.Southern Miss9.Iowa St

5.Temple12.Minnesota/Wyoming Columbus

4.Marquette13.Long Beach St

6.Gonzaga11.New Mexico Nashville

3.Florida St14.Akron

7.Michigan10.Connecticut Omaha

2.Kansas15.Belmont

WEST

1.Missouri16.Stony Brook/Mississippi Valley St Omaha

8.Virginia9.Illinois

5.Louisville12.Saint Louis Albuquerque

4.UNLV13.Middle Tennessee St

6.Wisconsin11.BYU Louisville

3.Georgetown14.Oral Roberts

7.Harvard10.Alabama Greensboro

2.North Carolina15.Bucknell

EAST

1.Syracuse16.Long Island Pittsburgh

8.Wichita St9.Washington

5.Mississippi St12.Purdue Portland

4.St. Mary’s13.Cleveland St

6.Vanderbilt11.Miami(FL) Columbus

3.Michigan St14.Davidson

7.West Virginia10.Memphis Albuquerque

2.Baylor15.Weber St

MIDWEST

1.Ohio St16.UT-Arlington Pittsburgh

8.Notre Dame9.Kansas St

5.San Diego St12.California/UCF Portland

4.Creighton13.Iona

6.Murray St11.Xavier Nashville

3.Florida14.Nevada

7.Indiana10.Cincinnati Greensboro

2.Duke15.Drexel

In Graphical Form

Tar Heel Blues

North Carolina's Roy Williams has repeatedly been frustrated by his team

In the 2005-2006 season, the season after North Carolina won its previous national championship, not much was expected. All that happened was North Carolina having a surprisingly good year and Roy Williams doing perhaps his best job ever as coach. Unfortunately for Tar Heel fans, this season isn’t shaping up to be quite as successful.

The Tarheels are struggling in every since of the word right now. They are losers of three of its last four including a blowout loss at Clemson and a road loss at the College of Charleston. They are 12-6 right now and their RPI is in the 50′s. The Michigan St and Ohio St wins will go a long way for them, but if they don’t turn it around soon, this season can spiral out of control.

The main reason North Carolina is in this position is because Ty Lawson plays for the Denver Nuggets. North Carolina is solid in the frontcourt, but guard play is holding it back. If they’re able to get solid play out of Larry Drew, this team can be dangerous in March. Right now though, its just not looking good for Roy Williams.

Stock Up: Ohio State. This is a completely different team with Evan Turner. As you saw by the show he put on in West Lafayette, Ind. last week, he’s clearly an All-American. In a foul-plagued game against Wisconsin, Turner still managed to score 15. This team might be too far behind Michigan St to catch the Spartans for the Big Ten regular season title. However, at full strength, this very well may be the best team in the conference.

Stock Down: UConn. The Huskies are very much in the same boat as the Tarheels, except they aren’t the defending national champions and preseason favorites to win their conference. That being said, they are reeling. They haven’t been the same since Georgetown rallied to beat them and with Texas on its way, it could get worse before it gets better.

Stock Up: BYU. The Cougars continue to be the top program in the Mountain West. They were expected to win the conference again, but they way they’re playing it looks like no one else is going to have a shot. At 17-1, the Cougars are in complete control at it appears that they’re going to sail to another NCAA tournament berth.

Stock Down: Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers are having the best year they’ve had in years, but they had an opportunity to send a message to the rest of the Big South last week and failed. The Radford Highlanders went into the Chanticleers building at took their lunch. Although the Coastal is still a game ahead, no one is going to put their money on it over Radford to win the Big South.

This Week’s Bracket Projections:

Last Four In: St. John’s, UConn, Northwestern, Old Dominion
Last Four Out: Virginia, Notre Dame, California, Oklahoma St

SOUTH
1.Texas16.Lafayette/Jackson St Oklahoma City
8.Mississippi St9.Cornell
5.Temple12.Old Dominion Jacksonville
4.UAB13.St. Johns
6.Northern Iowa11.UNLV San Jose
3.Wisconsin14.Murray St
7.Clemson10.Dayton Buffalo
2.Pittsburgh15.Weber St
EAST
1.Villanova16.Morgan St Providence
8.Georgia Tech9.Minnesota
5.Baylor12.Siena Spokane
4.Gonzaga13.College of Charleston
6.Vanderbilt11.Cincinnati New Orleans
3.Kansas St14.Pacific
7.Richmond10.Illinois Jacksonville
2.Duke15.Coastal Carolina
WEST
1.Kansas16.Campbell Oklahoma City
8.William&Mary9.Rhode Island
5.BYU12.UConn San Jose
4.Purdue13.Louisiana Tech
6.Ohio St11.Washington New Orleans
3.Tennessee14.Buffalo
7.Wake Forest10.Texas A&M Buffalo
2.Syracuse15.Sam Houston St
MIDWEST
1.Kentucky16.Quinnipiac Milwaukee
8.Missouri9.Arizona St
5.Butler12.Northwestern Spokane
4.West Virginia13.Western Kentucky
6.Xavier11.North Carolina Providence
3.Georgetown14.Oakland
7.New Mexico10.Mississippi Milwaukee
2.Michigan St15.Vermont

Welcome Home College Hoops Fans

This blog will be dedicated to nothing but college basketball.  Right now, we’re in the midst of Holiday tournament season with one of the great tournaments, EA Sports Maui Invitational tipping off today.

Saint Josephs vs. (8) Texas

Indiana vs. (9) Notre Dame

Chaminade vs. (1) North Carolina

Oregon vs. Alabama

We also have two other barnburners on tap for today as well.

(22) Wisconsin vs. (2) Connecticut-Championship game of the Paradise Jam in the Virgin Islands

&

Syracuse vs. (19) Florida in the semi-finals of the O’Reilly Auto Parts CBE Classic.

Lot’s of action makes this Monday tolerable.  Talk to you later.